PHOTO: Wikimedia Commons.
TENS of thousands of Ukrainian troops who launched a surprise incursion into Russia last summer, seizing control of a significant area, are now nearly encircled by Russian forces and cut off from their primary supply lines, according to open-source maps released on Friday.
The situation for Ukraine in Russia’s Kursk region has deteriorated sharply over the past three days, as Russian forces have regained territory in a growing counteroffensive that has almost bisected the Ukrainian contingent.
This precarious position raises the likelihood that Ukrainian forces may be compelled to undertake a politically delicate and psychologically taxing withdrawal back into Ukraine, or risk capture or death. This comes at a time when Kyiv is under increasing pressure from the United States to agree to a ceasefire with Russia.
“The situation for Ukraine is extremely dire,” Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told Reuters.
“There is little time left for Ukrainian forces to avoid encirclement or forced withdrawal. Any withdrawal would involve navigating a perilous route, constantly threatened by Russian drones and artillery,” he said.
“If Ukrainian forces fail to rectify the situation quickly, this could mark the moment when the Kursk salient is finally encircled.”
Neither the Russian Defence Ministry nor the Ukrainian military has officially confirmed the Russian advances, as both tend to report battlefield changes with a delay.
Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk last August was the most serious attack on Russian territory since the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941. It aimed to bring the war to ordinary Russians, whom the Kremlin had sought to shield from the conflict’s impact within Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine stated that the incursion was also intended to alleviate pressure on Ukrainian troops defending their country from Russian forces in the east by compelling Moscow to redeploy resources to defend its own territory. Additionally, it was meant to provide Kyiv with a potential bargaining chip in future peace negotiations.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia vowed that his forces would regain full control of Kursk by force and dismissed any notion of including it in broader future talks.
Open-source mapping from Deep State, a reputable Ukrainian military blogging platform, revealed on Friday that approximately three-quarters of the Ukrainian force inside Russia had been almost completely encircled.
The maps showed that these troops were connected to the remaining Ukrainian forces near the Russian border by a narrow land corridor, approximately one kilometre long and less than 500 metres wide at its narrowest point. Russian forces are also attempting to sever this corridor.
Deep State reported late on Thursday that Russian forces had advanced near the settlement of Kuryilovka. Yuri Podolyaka, a prominent Russian war blogger, noted that Russian forces had broken through south of Sudzha, a Russian town within the nearly encircled area.
“The Russian Armed Forces have driven a deep wedge, up to four kilometres deep, and have reached an alternative supply route to Sudzha, which the enemy was using due to the main road being inaccessible,” Podolyaka wrote on his Telegram channel.
Ukraine’s General Staff announced on Friday that its armed forces had repelled 32 Russian attacks in the Kursk region over the past day.
-BTS Media
